Four Parlays for This NCAA Tournament Game

Four Parlays for This NCAA Tournament Game

There are only three college basketball games left in the season. If you’re going to go big, now is the time.

Some might say that same-game parlays are a scam — that they aren’t smart gambling and that you’re wasting your time. Those people hate fun. There’s nothing wrong with taking a big shot on a fun parlay, and with only a few games left in the season, why not?

However, there are definitely some things to keep in mind when betting SGPs. First and foremost, be cautious about wager size and remain realistic with wagers.

The draw of betting same-game parlays is the low-risk/high-reward element, but even if you’re only betting $1, you’re still throwing away money if every SGP has only longshot legs and crazy odds that would take a miracle to hit.

With that in mind, let’s talk about building the SGP. I like to do multiple SGPs — all of which are basically built on the same players and/or narratives but increasing the odds on each.

For the Kansas/Villanova game, I’m betting four SGPs for 1.13 units in total to win 41 units.

The first is the one I’m most confident in.

Eric Dixon 8+ Points

Dixon should take over any usage that isn’t absorbed by Collin Gillespie in the absence of Justin Moore.

Dixon is averaging 9.1 points per game on the season while playing 27 minutes a game. With Moore gone, I expect both of these numbers to improve.

David McCormack Over 6.5 Rebounds

McCormack is pulling down 17.5% of offensive rebounds and 18.8% of defensive rebounds. Of course, he will be in competition with Jalen Wilson and others, as he has been for much of the year.

But McCormack is averaging 6.8 rebounds per game on the season. It may be a number he hasn’t surpassed in his last three games, but that just makes me believe he will be even more determined around the basket.

Jermaine Samuels Under 7.5 Rebounds

Samuels may have gone over 7.5 rebounds in seven of his last eight games, but without Moore, there’s reason to believe that won’t be the case here.

I expect Dixon to fill most of Moore’s usage, and Samuels has had fewer than 7.5 rebounds in more than 60% of games this season.

Christian Braun 2+ Assists

Braun has had two or more assists in each of his last four games. With him leading the team in minutes percentage since the tournament began, that should continue here as he reaches this number with ease.

Odds: +800 (0.5 Units to Win 4 Units)

If you want to do just one SGP, I recommend only this. But if you’re looking to have more fun…

Collin Gillespie 18+ Points

In Moore’s absence, I expect Gillespie to step up in a massive way to give Kansas at the very least a challenge en route to the national championship.

Gillespie leads the team in minutes percentage, effective field goal percentage and offensive rating, per BartTorvik.

Eric Dixon 20+ Points + Rebounds + Assists

Dixon and Gillespie are most likely to pick up the slack in Moore’s absence. I think this is a number Dixon could pass with ease if that’s the case.

Remy Martin 20+ Points + Rebounds + Assists

If anyone’s going to pull stats away from other players in this Final Four game, it’s going to be Remy Martin.

Martin had a stretch of three games in the NCAA Tournament in which he posted 20-plus points, rebounds and assists. He scored more than 20 points in two of those. This may be a risk with long odds, but Martin has proven his ability to surpass this number with ease in the tournament.

Christian Braun 1+ Assists

In all honesty, this is a filler line, Braun should get one assist in this game; it’s something he’s achieved in every game in the postseason.

Ochai Agbai 20+ Points + Rebounds

Agbaji averages 18.9 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. He leads Kansas in scoring and may surpass this number on points alone.

Odds: +2000 (0.25 Units to Win 5.2 Units)

Christian Braun 25+ Points + Rebounds + Assists

Back to the fact that Braun is second on the team in minutes percentage while breaking 20 points, rebounds and assists hump due in large part to expected foul shots.

Eric Dixon 20+ Points + Rebounds + Assists

Again, Dixon could break this number on points alone, and I wouldn’t be surprised. Rebounds won’t be huge against Kansas, but every stat helps.

Villanova/Kansas Double Result

This is somewhat of a risky play, but Kansas has struggled in the first half throughout the season and specifically in the postseason. It feels like a great price here on a quarter-unit parlay.

Odds: +3500 (0.25 Units to Win 9 Units)

Remy Martin 20+ Points + Rebounds + Assists

As previously stated, Martin has proven his ability to have a big game in this tournament.

Eric Dixon 11+ Points

Filling a considerable amount of Moore’s minutes should get this number home.

David McCormack 9+ Rebounds

As the best Jayhawk rebounder, I don’t mind taking my chances here with the proven leader.

Collin Gillespie 30+ Points + Rebounds + Assists

If Villanova is going to stand any chance in this game, it will need a big one from Gillespie. I think this is something he can easily achieve.

Villanova +4.5

Even without Moore, I have been proven wrong too many times to not take the points with a Jay Wright team. He’s a great coach with an experienced team of talented players, so I have no issue taking the +4.5 here.

Villanova 1H +5.5

Same idea as the full game spread, but Kansas has struggled in the first half consistently. At an alternate line, this seemed fair to get the parlay above a 20-plus unit payout.

Odds: +17000 (0.13 Units to Win 22.3 Units)

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