Alabama vs Kentucky Picks and Predictions: Wildcats Roll Against Tide

Alabama vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions

Some of the shine from the Tide’s early-season swing is starting to fade, while the Wildcats look like an elite two-way team and a generally poor matchup. Find out why our Alabama vs. Kentucky picks see the home side covering here.

Last Updated: Feb 19, 2022 8:44 AM ET
Read Time: 4 mins

The Kentucky Wildcats host the Alabama Crimson Tide in college basketball betting action on Saturday afternoon. The No. 5 ranked Wildcats defeated the Tide on the road two weeks ago and oddsmakers expect them to take care of business once again, installing them as 6.5-point home favorites for this SEC battle.

Here are our best free Alabama vs. Kentucky college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday, February 19.

Alabama vs. Kentucky odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hits the board with Kentucky at -6.5 with the Over/Under at 154.5. Early action came in on the Over, shifting the total to 155 as of 8:15 am ET.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Alabama vs Kentucky predictions

Predictions made on 2/19/2022 at 8:15 am ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Alabama vs Kentucky game info

Lease: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
Date: Saturday, February 19, 2022
tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

Alabama at Kentucky betting preview

insults

Alabama: Nimari Burnett G (Out).
Kentucky: TyTy Washington Jr. G (Questionable), CJ Fredrick G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Crimson Tide are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. Kentucky.

Alabama vs Kentucky picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Kentucky Wildcats are fresh off a 76-63 road loss to Tennessee, which snapped a six-game winning streak. The Crimson Tide have reeled off three wins in a row since losing at home to Kentucky two weeks ago. The Wildcats shut down the Tide in that contest, limiting them to 55 points on 27% shooting — including a pathetic 3-33 from beyond the arc.

Alabama shouldn’t shoot that poorly from three-point range again but it ranks outside the Top 300 schools in the country with a 30.8 3PT%, so they might not be a whole lot better today. The Tide are 14th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom but they shoot a modest 44.6% from the field. They’ve also been shaky on defense, surrendering at least 75 points in eight of their last 11 games.

That’s bad news against a Kentucky team that averages a sizzling 86.4 points per game at home with a 51.1 FG%. The Wildcats have also been fantastic on defense, ranking 14th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and they lead the country in rebounding rate at 57.6%.

The Tide have a guard-oriented lineup led by Jaden Shackleford (17.1 ppg) and Jahvon Quinerly (14.2 ppg). That said, they don’t have the length and depth of this Wildcats squad led by powerful big man Oscar Tshiebwe (16.2 points and 15.3 rebounds per game).

With Alabama just 3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 games, we’re taking the home side on the spread.

Prediction: Kentucky -6.5 (-110)

Covers NCAA basketball betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the country with Kentucky averaging 80.6 ppg and the Tide putting up 80.4 ppg. That said, they combined for just 120 points when they put up earlier this month so the Over/Under seems a bit too high here.

Especially when you consider that the Wildcats hold opponents to just 64.7 ppg on a 40.5 FG% with both numbers ranking among the Top-50 schools in the nation.

The Wildcats offense might also struggle a bit if guard TyTy Washington doesn’t suit up. The freshman guard is second on the team in both scoring (12.4 ppg) and assists (4.1 assists per game) and is listed as questionable with an ankle injury that forced him to leave the last game early. Take the Under.

Prediction: Under 155 (-110)

best bet

Alabama typically plays at a fast pace but the Tide have a tendency to slow things down against quality opponents. While we don’t necessarily see a low-scoring contest like the Jan. 5 showdown, a total of 155 seems way too high. Especially with four of the last five meetings between these teams going below the total.

pick: Under 155 (-110)

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