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Click arrow to expand 2022 Mexico Open odds via PointsBet
2022 Mexico Open Odds
|Charles Howell III||+5000|
|Cheng Tsung Pan||+6000|
|Andrew D. Putnam||+12500|
|Rafael Cabrera Bello||+12500|
|Sang Moon Bae||+40000|
|Bo Van Pelt||+50000|
|Darren Andrew Dots||+50000|
|Dawie Van Der Walt||+50000|
|Juan Cristobal Islas||+50000|
|Santiago de la Fuente||+50000|
|Richard S. Johnson||+50000|
There is always a natural letdown after the year’s first major, but it’s strange to see so little interest in this week’s Mexico Open. Perhaps it’s due to the fact that we had a lackluster team event last week or the fact that everyone is looking forward to the Wells Fargo Championship next week. I always love these weeks because we can use the complacency of others to find edges in both betting and DFS.
This week’s Mexico Open will be held at Vidanta Vallarta, which is a par-71 that measures 7,456 yards. Unlike most par-71s, this course features four par fives and five par threes. This essentially makes the course play even longer than the scorecard might suggest.
This is the first time seeing the course on the PGA TOUR, so there are a lot of unknowns at play. We can make assumptions based on the width of the fairways, grass type and length of the course, but we really won’t know what type of golfer this course suits until the tournament gets underway.
My advice this week is to avoid groupthink as much as possible. The more unknowns we have, the more we should be willing to get away from popular opinion. If everyone is betting and using the same golfers in their DFS lineups, there will be value elsewhere. This is true for everyone except Jon Rahm, who is clearly the class of the field. There is no value in betting him at +400 in a field of 144 golfers, but he will be a staple in my DFS lineups.
Outright: Gary Woodland +2200 (BetMGM)
Woodland is coming off of a missed cut at the Masters, but Augusta National has never been a place where he has played well. Prior to that, he had three top-10s in five starts. They weren’t pushover events either, as he finished T8 at Valero, T5 at the API, and T5 at the Honda.
Woodland is top-15 in this field in driving distance, Strokes Gained: Approach, birdie or better percentage, and bogey avoidance. He also has some good finishes on courses that feature the same grass type as Vidanta Vallarta.
Longshot: Charles Howell III +6000 (DraftKings)
My favorite bet of the week is CH3 to finish in the top 10 at +550, but I will also put an outright bet on him just in case he catches fire with the flatstick.
Howell has always been a good driver of the ball, but his irons have let him down over the last few years. I went through and looked at his approach numbers over the last 18 months, the last 10 months and the last five months. He has gotten progressively better with the irons and consequently, his birdie rate has skyrocketed.
Howell also plays some of his best golf on easy courses, and he has a good track record on paspalum greens.
Contrarian DFS Play: Lanto Griffin $8,300 DraftKings / $9,700 FanDuel
There is a constant struggle in DFS between finding good value and chasing the hot form of golfers. I tend to side with the golfers that are priced down due to poor form, especially when that is accompanied by a discount in ownership.
Griffin has missed three of his last four cuts on tour, but he has basically been his short game that has let him down. I’m willing to take a chance on his bad around the green play in hopes that the course plays easy and/or he hits a lot of greens. The talent is certainly there and we are getting the chance to play him at a very reasonable price point.
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